April 2nd: MLB West Division Predictions

We wrap up our breakdown of every team in baseball with the West divisions. With the Mariners surging and the Astros growing ever-closer to their 2017 World Series date, the AL is full of excitement. Meanwhile, the NL holds the dominant Dodgers and the defending World Champs. The West will most certainly be wild this year.

American League West:

1. Angels

Everyone wants to declare the Angels secondary in their division, but that lineup is fierce. Having the greatest player on the planet helps, and I see Albert Pujols continuing to rebuild his career as he learns what it means to be an older player. The pitching is the one area of question, but this team is going to be better than anyone is giving them credit for.

2. Mariners

This looks to be the preeminent favorite to come out of the American League in October. I am not so sure, though, as the Mariners have a lot of growing and learning to do. Strong on all sides of the ball, the Mariners will be fun to watch this year, but we all need to keep our enthusiasm in check a little bit, as there is a lack of experience on this team that could cause a hiccup down the stretch.

3. Astros

Don’t look now, but the Astros look like they are getting to compete sooner rather than later. George Springer is going to be a star in this league, while the rest of the lineup saw great improvement with some wise offseason moves. The pitching is an area of concern, but the Astros are trending up, and could turn a lot of heads.

4. Athletics

Every year I predict the A’s won’t be as good as we expect, and every year the A’s are better than we expect. This year might just be the first time I’m right. A full blown fire sale left almost no one you’ve ever heard of on this team, and, while Billy Beane has always been a genius, his selling may have caught up to him this time.

5. Rangers

The Rangers were baseball’s least lucky team last year, and this year doesn’t look to be much better. The end to Yu Darvish’s season is a huge blow, and the Rangers are putting a lot of love behind Prince Fielder, who is coming off a serious injury. This team could be much better than I expect, but, if we learned anything from last year, it’s that you can’t get your hopes up in Arlington.

National League West:

1. Dodgers

The Dodgers had a dominant 2014 campaign come to a dramatic end, as Clayton Kershaw fell from grace in the postseason. This year, the team will bide their time until they can get their October revenge. A great lineup and a great rotation means this team will have no problem finding their way into the playoffs. What they do from there will define them.

2. Giants

Three championships in five years? This team is a dynasty, and Buster Posey is the reason why. While it would be clever to claim that this will be a down (odd numbered) year, the Giants will be competitive, and will be led by two of the brightest young stars in the sport in Posey and MadBum. The Giants aren’t as strong as they were in October, but they will still be a force.

3. Padres

The Padres will have six new starters on Opening Day, causing many to declare the Padres ready for contention. I’m not entirely sure that all of the pieces will come together as nicely as others might believe. This team will hit plenty of home runs, and the pitching will keep them competitive, but this will be the biggest disappointment of the season by a wide margin.

4. 
   Diamondbacks

I’ve loved the moves the Diamondbacks have made since Tony La Russa took over. If I were a pitcher, I would hide under the bed at the thought of Goldschmidt, Trumbo, and Thomas back to back to back. The young outfield corps is also very intriguing, and will give this team a spark. If it weren’t for a dreary pitching staff, I would boldly predict that this team would be my sleeper pick. Maybe next offseason they’ll be ready to finish the rebuild.

5. Rockies

The Rockies are a team full of parts, none of which can bring together the finished product. Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, Morneau, Blackmon, Arenado; there is plenty of star power, but nothing to show for it. This team needs to aggressively commit to rebuilding, and actually put together a product that can compete in all phases of the game.

Check back tomorrow for a look at the playoff picture and a full prediction. Who will come away with the Commissioner's Trophy in October? You’ll find out tomorrow!

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What's the Big Deal?

In late March of last year, the Giants locked up catcher Buster Posey on a nine-year, $167 million deal. In May, the Cubs signed Anthony Rizzo to a seven-year deal to go with Starlin Castro’s new contract which had been signed the August before.

For the next year, Major League Baseball saw an influx in signings that showed team locking up promising talent for long-term contracts, in what can only be considered an expensive gamble. The theory was as follows: if we can lock up our future before they start producing like superstars, we can pay them good money without having to pay them great money.

This is, of course, a reaction to the contracts that superstar free agents like Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols have been getting upon reaching their payday. Teams simply cannot afford to wait until stars pan out, they have to instead get them locked up early.

This is the situation that faces the Angels and Mike Trout. Trout has already proven that he has superstar talent, but he also is under team control for the next few years. Until recently, the Angels seemed content (if not a little disconcerted) to see where things would go. The problem is, though, if Trout continues his dominance, they will have to pay him more than any other player in Major League history. They probably waited one year too long, but got away with what looks like a pretty fair deal for all parties involved in Trout’s new six-year, $144.5 million deal. At the end of the six year deal, Trout would be 29, and still eligible to bring home a contract worth over $300 million.

Mike Trout is already going to make big money, with another significant contract in his future.

Baseball is at a point where the big-time contracts that are being given to the 30 year-old stars have yet to run out. We are still trying to figure out how much bang teams will most likely get for their substantial bucks. Alex Rodriguez, the “inventor” of the mega-deal, is STILL within the contract that he signed that revolutionized the money market in baseball. If he is the standard, then teams should be very concerned about signing the dotted line for these substantial contracts.

What is especially interesting is the types of players that are getting the new mid-level deals. Recently, Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals and Jason Kipnis of the Indians each signed new deals These aren’t the major slammers that get the big deals. These are the regular producers, the grinders, who would get expensive if they were let to hit the free agent market. The Cardinals and Indians basically realized what they had in their system and decided to get them locked up before anyone else could figure it out.

There is, though, the risk of investing highly in a young player who will not pan out. The Cubs are in fear of realizing this with the contracts for Rizzo and Castro. Both signed significant deals prior to (or during) the 2013 season, and proceeded to bust, having terrible years. There is, of course, optimism that the two young studs will turn things around, and that they will lead the Cubs back to the promised land, but there are, of course, risks to signing a pair of 24 year-olds to long-term, big money deals.

The landscape of baseball is changing, and we are standing on the cusp of a financial revolution. Contracts keep getting steeper and steeper, and there will come a time when we can’t get any bigger than the $240 million that Robinson Cano got from the Mariners. To save themselves from having to break the bank later, teams are becoming more interested in signing contract extensions, rather than getting into bidding wars for free agents. Young, exciting, and still growing players are reaping the benefits of these contracts, and have started the revolution in the way teams try to create their foundations for years to come.

February 22nd: National League Preview

The 162 game baseball season is a marathon. Yet, in Spring Training, it is easy enough to let the excitement get the best of you. Everyone is trying to guess where the standings will wind up September 29^th. In this case, the Zoot Perspective Left Fielder will attempt to predict the standings for the 2014 baseball season. This week we’ll tackle the National League, next week the American League.

NL East:

     1,  Washington Nationals: Last year was a season to forget in DC. With their mysterious hitting woes behind them, the Nationals should prove why they were such heavy favorites to win last year. One of the strongest starting rotations allows even a rough start for the lineup to remain a scary threat for the division title.

     2. Atlanta Braves: The first team to clinch last year has a lot of question marks, including which pair of Upton brothers will show up. This team will live and die by the bat of Freddie Freeman, who is out to prove that his big new contract was no accident.

     3.   New York Mets: Young pitching leads another new wave of Mets, led by Dillon Gee and Zack Wheeler. Missing Matt Harvey will hurt, though, and David Wright’s questionable durability may be the difference for a franchise that lacks the offense to put up big numbers. Another mediocre year awaits.

     4. Philadelphia Phillies: The past few years have not been kind to the aging Phillies, as the 2008 World Series is shrinking in the rearview mirror. An identity crisis is in the cards as Philadelphia attempts to decide whether they want to compete now or rebuild for their future.

     5.  Miami Marlins: An offseason of smart moves makes this Marlins team better than the terrifyingly bad on from a year ago. Jarrod Saltalamacchia does not make you a champion, though. This team will be better, but not by much.

NL Central:

      1. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are perennial threats to make the playoffs, and this year appears to be no exception. A strong core of talent and some offseason improvements from last year’s NL pennant winners should put them in contention to return to the World Series. The one question mark will be to see how young pitchers Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller respond to their sophomore campaigns.

     2. Pittsburgh Pirates: The loss of some key rentals from last year’s playoff team could bode badly for the Buccos. The taste of victory is on the lips of Pittsburgh fans, though, so the club should be hungry for more. Having defending NL MVP Andrew McCutchen and rising stars OF Starling Marte and SP Gerrit Cole should make this team contenders for quite a few years to come.

     3.  Cincinnati Reds: Two years ago, this team won the division in stunning fashion. Last year, they fell in the Wild Card game. Unfortunately, the slide may continue for a team that is relying heavily on the production of some young stars. This will be a good ball club, but most likely not a great one.

     4. Chicago Cubs: The future looks bright in Chicago. The question is, how long will fans have to wait? Bounce-back years from Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo should lead a young team into a more comfortable place. This year isn’t the year, but it’s going to be good practice for the very exciting 2015 season.

     5.  Milwaukee Brewers: Although stealthily subtle moves to improve the rotation have helped, the Brewers are far removed from the days of competing in the NL Central. This team will most likely flounder unless Carlos Gomez can continue to rise and Ryan Braun can return in full form (minus the steroids).

NL West:

     1.  Los Angeles Dodgers: The biggest question facing the Dodgers is who will be the odd man out in a too-talented outfield. That’s a good problem to have. Starting pitching and young talent headline a team with an expectation for a World Series win. This team looks like the real deal.

   

     2. San Fransisco Giants: A team that wins the World Series and returns almost the whole lineup should do pretty well, right? Apparently not, as last year’s Giants proved. This year, though, things should be back to normal, as the Giants take a stab at the wild card or even a chance to unseat the Dodgers. Either way, that rivalry will be fun this summer.

     3.  Arizona Diamondbacks: This team is going to be hard to predict. The potential is there for a real playoff threat, while there is also the chance for a big flop. The big questions are whether Mark Trumbo can provide some support for Paul Goldschmidt, and whether or not the starting pitching can keep the Diamondbacks going.

     4. San Diego Padres: A very similar group from the 2013 squad, this team is supposed to develop into a solid core of players. Key words: supposed to. Expectations are high and, unless someone steps up as the star of this team, they will most likely not be met.

     5.Colorado Rockies: Some young stars exist in Nolan Arenado and Wilin Rosario, and Carlos Gonzalez will continue to be a yearly MVP candidate, but otherwise this team appears a little lackluster. In an otherwise strong division, this team just doesn’t look to have what it takes to make a big impact on the race come August or September.