2016 MLB Preview

Happy holiday from the ZP: Left Fielder! Today is Opening Day, when 30 teams think they have a chance, and the long winter without baseball comes to an end.

This year, there is even more intrigue, where 15 American League teams think they have a chance at the post-season, while in the NL, powerhouses square off to make it to the promise land. Who will make it to October and who will be left looking from the outside? The ZP: Left Fielder previews the 2016 MLB season:

National League Central:

1. Cubs

This team is stacked. A team coming fresh off an NLCS appearance went out and got a top 3 starter and two big-time free agent hitters. Looking up and down the lineup, it is difficult to figure out who to pitch to. The only thing that could stop the Cubs is expectations, although Joe Maddon will keep them cool under pressure.

2. Pirates (Wild Card)

The Pirates are well on their way to creating a quirky dynasty: playoffs every year, but always at risk for a quick Wild Card exit. McCutchen is as reliable as it gets, and the pitching is deep enough to keep them going strong in the tough NL Central.

3. Cardinals

After three straight years of divisional titles, the Cardinals are looking at the toughest competition yet. They always find a way to stay alive, and they have a stable of young hitters to go toe-to-toe with the Cubs, but they are not nearly where they have been over the past decade. A small step back sees the Cardinals on the outside looking in.

4. Brewers

Milwaukee is in rebuilding mode, and the pieces are in place to see the future as pretty bright. That future isn’t here yet, though, because it will be a long year of losing for the Brew Crew. Young players arriving throughout the summer will give Brewers fans something to look forward to in 2017 and beyond.

5. Reds

The Reds were so bad this past calendar year that they even failed to sell off their resources like they wanted to. They didn’t get nearly what they should have for Todd Fraizer and Aroldis Chapman, and Jay Bruce didn’t move at all. This team will be miserable until July, when they can sell off everyone not named Votto (and maybe even a guy named Votto).

National League West:

1. Dodgers

Losing Zack Greinke can’t be good for a team, but the Dodgers went out and added enough depth to try to replace his success by committee. The Dodgers are crazy deep, and should take home their fourth straight divisional crown.

2. Giants (Wild Card)

Yeah, yeah, we know, it’s an even year. And I’m not dumb enough to bet against them making the playoffs. But the Giants just aren’t deep enough with strong enough players to be the powerhouse that you would expect of a dynasty coming in on their hot year. The infield is stacked, and MadBum is the real deal, but an old outfield and too many question marks makes this team a hot pick for a bust this year.

3. Diamondbacks

With one of the bolder offseasons in recent memory, the Diamondbacks look like they’re ready to strike. The loss of AJ Pollock makes a playoff spot look difficult, but the Snakes look good for the next two or three years.

4. Rockies

Until the Rockies can convince a pitcher to join the Mile High Party, this team will never be able to compete against the stacked NL West. Nolan Arenado will be fun to watch, and Carlos Gonzalez will spend the rest of his career under the cloud of the trading block until a deal gets done.

5. Padres

From World Series threat to the joke of the division, the Padres have done everything wrong since this time last year. A team made up of good parts made a bad whole, and doesn’t look like it is going to get any better in the coming year.

National League East:

1. Nationals

Last year’s biggest disappointment, the Nationals are going to come into the new season as the second best team in the National League East. That will only serve them well, as an improved lineup that stays healthy will follow a contract year from Stephen Strasburg into the playoffs.

2. Mets

Officially the boldest prediction of the year, the Mets will miss the playoffs altogether. Starting pitching is as good as it gets, but the offensive and defensive sides of the ball will let down a staff that will almost certainly have to carry the team.

3. Marlins

Some people want to pick the Marlins as their sexy dark horse this week. I’m not buying it. Giancarlo Stanton is a monster, but only when he stays healthy. The rest of the team is overwhelmingly mediocre, and isn’t enough to find themselves in the playoffs, especially in a strong division.

4. Braves

The Braves have decided to scrap the 2016 season and rebuild, but took the fastest route to a rebuild. Ender Inciarte is a soon-to-be perennial All-Star, and Danby Swanson is going to be a superstar. If they can put things together quickly, this team could be good as soon as the start of next season. Just not this year.

5. Phillies

Oh, poor Philadelphia. The Phillies will try to beat their city-mate 76ers’ ineptitude, and rebuild for a long-term future. A few names stand out as fun to watch, including Aaron Nola and Mikhail Franco, but, on the whole, this will be another miserable summer in Philadelphia.

American League Central:

1. Royals

Are we ready to believe in the Royals yet? Kansas City has been to the World Series twice, won it once, and is bringing back nearly all of the same pieces. When will this team run out of magic? Not yet, at least.

2. Tigers

Detroit has been in win-now mode for a very long time and, until last year, it was working. With the additions of Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton, they continue to try to compete in the immediate, possibly forsaking the future. Here’s to hoping for a return to greatness for Justin Verlander.

3. Twins

If potential was enough, the Twins would be a very intriguing team. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are expected to be superstars, and Brian Dozier brings veteran experience. Their ptiching is a little weak, and they are probably a year away from being major players in the Central.

4. White Sox

Oh, poor White Sox. They can’t seem to decide if they are rebuilding or competing. After a spring filled with drama, the White Sox will show flashes of brillaince (thank you, Jose Abreu, Chris Sale and Todd Frazier) among long stretches of mediocrity (thank you, everyone else).

5. Indians

The Mets of the American League, the Indians are stacked at pitching. Well, they have three good pitchers. When you look at the other 23 guys on the roster, you see a lot to be desired. Corey Kluber will spend another year wasting his prime on a bad team with no hope for October.

American League West:

1. Astros

A young, exciting team that was six outs away from the ALCS, the Astros are putting things together for a long run of contention. Carlos Correa is a strong threat for MVP, and Dallas Keuchel is a stud. The Astros are here to stay, and should be a World Series favorite out of the AL.

2. Rangers (Wild Card)

The Rangers are the best team you’ve never heard of. Their offense took off in June last year, and they never looked back, even so far as to push the powerhouse Blue Jays to the brink of elimination last year. With an entire season of Cole Hamels and a return of Yu Darvish, this team is one to be feared.

3. Angels

Maybe we should call this team Trout and Co. Behind the superstar, there really isn’t much to talk about. This team has some players that will keep them interesting, but there just isn’t enough to play with here for a real competition.

4. Mariners

Last year’s most disappointing team is looking to repeat for the title again. After an offseason with a massive quantity of moves, the Mariners look exactly as meh as they were last year. Unless the right guys catch fire, we will be scratching our heads again in September.

5. As

For the first time in a while, Oakland was relatively quiet in an offseason. That isn’t a good thing for a team that finished near the bottom of the AL West last year. It doesn’t look good for the Sonny Gray led A’s, who will have to consider dealing the ace at the deadline.

American League East:

1. Red Sox

The Red Sox have made “worst to first” their new personal motto. Well, last year they were bad, but not THAT bad. And after adding David Price to an already potent lineup, expect the Red Sox to challenge Toronto for Eastern supremacy.

2. Blue Jays (Wild Card)

Last year, the Blue Jays could out-hit anyone. This year, their lack of pitching will come back to bite them in the butt. With contract disputes with two of their three best hitters, this doesn’t bode well for the Blue Jays, who have to spend their entire season looking over their shoulder.

3. Rays

I desperately wanted to predict an AL East Division Championship for this Rays team. Their pitching is stacked, they have a lineup full of consistency (if not stardom), and the Rays management just knows how to win. I see them in it until September, then losing steam because of deadline acquisitions by division rivals.

4. Yankees

Many people think the Yankees will be in the thick of a playoff race late in the year. With their aging lineup and questionable rotation, that is wishful thinking. The Yankees will always be the Yankees, but this year, they aren’t going to be in October.

5. Orioles

The Orioles are the team to beat up on in the American League East. Their lineup is suspect, their pitching is sad, and the team just won’t be able to keep pace with the powerhouses that occupy their division.

November 26th: MLB Free Agent Preview

The Hot Stove is the best time of the year, as each team tries to find the key ingredient that will throw them over the top into contention. This year, there is a glut of free agents who have the potential to change their new team drastically. The bidding war for each will be fierce, but here is the ZP: Left Fielder’s take on the final destination for each of the top free agents:

David Price - Blue Jays: Most expect Price to land in Chicago, but I wouldn’t count out the Blue Jays to bring him back. Toronto was on the cusp of a world series, and pitching is not the area to skimp if they want to get back. A great offense is only as good as the pitchers who support it, so expect to see Price get a big offer to stay at his new home.

Zack Greinke - Dodgers: The Dodgers have won a lot, but have nothing in their trophy case to show for it. Greinke isn’t the reason for that, though, and his dominance as a one-two punch with Kershaw makes him too valuable to let go. He scores big bucks from Los Angeles.

Johnny Cueto - Red Sox: The Red Sox need an ace, and Cueto has been on their radar for a long time. His second half last year was a little scary, but the Red Sox proved last year that they aren’t afraid to take a gamble (even when they should be).

Jordan Zimmermann - Cubs: Many like David Price as the Cubs top target, but they would be better off getting two decent-sized fish, rather than one big one. Jordan Zimmermann has been rock solid over the last few years, and would solidify the middle of the Chicago staff.

Jeff Samardzija - Cubs: A reunion between Shark and the North Side would be the perfect solution to the starting depth of the Cubs. They already have a relationship, and, with the money saved from Zimmermann as opposed to Price, Samardzija becomes the fourth starter in a staff that is as scary as the lineup that backs it up.

Jason Heyward - Giants: This may be my oldest prediction of them all. Everyone will want to pick the Giants to win it all this year. It is, after all, an even numbered year. I’m sure the Giants know that, and a little bit of pressure might force them to upgrade their lineup. Heyward would bring some life to an outfield that looks a little old. Heyward’s bat, combined with a second-tier starter, will make the Giants a terrifying team.

Justin Upton - Orioles: The Orioles want a big hitter, and Jay Bruce may be their top choice. They may not have the farmhands to get it done, though, so Upton is a very attractive option for left field. Upton alongside Jones would be a great pairing both in the lineup and in the outfield, and he would become the new centerpiece of a mild rebuild project in Baltimore.

Yoenis Cespedes - Angels: The Angels are familiar with Cespedes from his days in Oakland, and he would be an excellent bat to protect Trout and Pujols. That, combined with the fact that this would become the best defensive outfield in the American League makes Cespedes a good bet for the Angels.

Ian Desmond - Padres: Everyone knows the Padres want a shortstop. They have wanted one for 18 months. And Desmond is the real deal when it comes to shortstop. He can’t field particularly well, but what he lacks with his glove, he makes up for with his bat. Desmond is going to score big bucks, and the Padres will be happy to give them to him.

Alex Gordon - Royals: I would love to say that Gordon goes to Chicago to bring defensive wizardry and a scary bat to an already terrifying Cubs offense, but there is no way that the Royals let their man walk away. Gordon was the heart and soul of this team for so long, and he will get a hero’s welcome to return.

Ben Zobrist - Mets: The Mets will lose Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes, two central pieces of their World Series runner-up offense. To make up for it, they are going to make a big push for the ultimate Swiss-Army knife ballplayer, Zobrist. He will bring a reliable bat and a versatile glove to a team that has the pitching to make it big, but needs experience and contributors to back them up.

Daniel Murphy - Angels: The Angels are going to try to out-slug their opponents this year, and Murphy could be an excellent option at third base. His defense is mediocre, but his bat would be deadly, especially if the Murphy of October shows up in April. Money might be an issue, but if the Angels can overcome that, then this is a match made in heaven.

Chris Davis - Cardinals: The Cardinals need power, and Davis is the spokesman for power. He can slot in at first base for them, and maybe even the outfield in a pinch. The Cardinals are looking desperate to keep pace with the surging Cubs and Pirates, and they might make a free agency mistake by signing a high-risk, high-reward hitter like Davis.

June 11th: Prime Time Bias

A weekend, nationally televised, primetime broadcast is a hot commodity for any MLB team and city. Every Sunday night, two teams square off on ESPN, earning the spoils of a little extra spotlight and attention from those outside of the home market. For fans across the country, it may be the only opportunity to see a team that isn’t local. Fans of National League teams might get the chance to see AL matchups, and vice versa. The biggest stars can showcase their skills to viewers who otherwise might not get to see them.

Unfortunately, there hasn’t been much diversity on Sunday night baseball for the first nine weeks of this season. So far, there have been ten teams featured on Sunday night baseball. That alone wouldn’t be a huge problem, as it represents one third of the league. The bigger issue is that, of the nine games, seven of them have featured either the Cardinals or the Yankees. The other two? The Detroit Tigers. While there has been some diversity in the opponents, the overall skew of the telecasts doesn’t bode well for the rest of the league.

There may be some reasons for this bias toward big market teams. First, it is just the beginning of the series. By the middle of June, ESPN will have had the chance to see who are the teams with some life to them, which will allow them to select the most interesting prime-time matchups. At least for the first 10 weeks, it isn’t a bad idea to select St. Louis and New York, as you are pretty much guaranteed to see some good baseball. This week, the Cubs and Reds square off at Wrigley, the first game to buck the Cardinals/Yankees/Tigers trend of late.

Additionally, larger markets are going to have more viewer draw than small town teams. You won’t see the same rate of viewership with a game between Houston and Oakland, no matter what direction those teams are going. It benefits ESPN to wind up in a big market where more fans are likely to tune in.

This is a trend to keep an eye on throughout the season. There is plenty of baseball to be played, but ESPN should be using Sunday Night Baseball to promote the very best that the MLB has to offer, not just a Cardinals or Yankees game every week. That being said, here are my picks for three teams that deserve a little extra television love in the next few weeks:

1. 
   Houston Astros

This club has been a shock to almost everyone. While they’ve received some nice attention from the baseball media, it would be great for the American public to see exactly who these guys are and what is going into their success. If Dallas Keuchel could be on the mound, that would be even better, as he is emerging as one of the top pitchers in the American League. This team is good. Let’s show them off.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are scary good, and they are led by one of the best young stars in the game. The staff is absolutely dealing, and this team is heating up just in time to give the Cardinals a headache as the year goes on. Pittsburgh is a market that could be the beginning of a baseball super power, and a little bit of spotlight could do the city wonders.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

Maybe an odd choice, considering they are a sub-.500 team playing in a division with the mighty Dodgers and defending World Champion Giants, but they have, arguably, the greatest player in the game right now. Paul Goldschmidt is tearing the cover off the baseball, and a trip to primetime (possibly against a better opponent) would allow fans across the country to experience the treat that is Goldy.

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May 20th: A Castro in the Hand...

While the Cubs and Mets clashed in a four game set on the diamond, the front offices spent some time discussing assets and the possibility of a deal being struck. The Cubs are in need of pitching, with a few arms standing between them and a very deep playoff run. Meanwhile, the Mets believe they are a franchise shortstop away from creating a dynasty with dreams of October. Each team is strong in the others’ area of need, and it looks to be a perfect match to make something happen.

“We haven’t made a deal yet, but there’s been matches that made sense, and I’m sure we’ll talk to them in the future,” Cubs General Manager Jed Hoyer said of the conversations with New York. “It’ll happen at some point.”

Today, Bleacher Report took the first crack at guessing what kind of pieces would be included in a blockbuster between the Cubs and Mets. The trade proposed was as follows:

Cubs get: SP Jacob DeGrom, RP Rafael Montero, and C Kevin Plawecki

Mets get: SS Starlin Castro, IF/OF Arismendy Alcantara, and 1B Dan Vogelbach

The argument for the deal is that it is a proven shortstop for a top young arm, with supporting cast members that fill other voids on each team respectively.

The Cubs need to be cautious, though, not to overestimate the value of the infield depth. By trading Castro and Alcantara, they would be losing two of the valuable pieces that contribute to the insane depth of the middle infield. Javier Baez is a valuable piece, but hasn’t proven to be a major contributor at the big league level. Meanwhile, Castro is a centerpiece for what the Cubs have done so far, and has a very team-friendly contract going forward for the next few years.

Right now, the Cubs look like they are about to get to clicking on all cylinders. The infield is a collection of big names, from Bryant to Castro to Russell to Rizzo. That has the makings of a historic squad that can lead the Cubs to a decade of success. To break that up would require an offer that would revolutionize a different facet of the game, and DeGrom just isn’t that.

Rather than using Castro, a veteran presence in the clubhouse, as trade bait, it might better serve the Cubs to use Baez as a high-ceiling gamble for a trade partner. Will this have an impact on the return? Certainly. But it is well worth it to maintain the services of one of the National League’s best shortstops, rather than betting on the development on an offensive monster with strikeout problems.

Another motivation to the trade proposed by BR is the need for the Cubs to find their “Catcher of the Future,” believing that Plawecki could be that backstop. The flaw in this notion is the assumption that Kyle Schwarber doesn’t have a future as a catcher in the league. As a hitter, Schwarber is already begging for his turn at the big league level. Defensively, it seems like the Cubs simply can’t make up their mind. Every few months there is a new article about the hard work he is putting in behind the dish, and how much progress he is making. Then, soon after, we hear that the Cubs are in need of an answer for the future. My money is on Schwarber as a central piece of the Cubs future, and willing to put in the work to make himself invaluable wherever he is needed. It is most certainly not worth it to part ways with Castro to add another name to the mix at a position with a variety of options.

The inclusion of Vogelbach is the one bright spot in this deal. Vogelbach is a strong prospect who has had years of success, but is stuck behind, debatably, the game’s best first baseman for the future. With no real ability to find a different position, the sooner the Cubs can get some return for the hefty first-sacker the better.

On the whole, the Cubs are in a holding pattern with a huge volume of talent at several positions. While they are in need of starting pitching, they should be very thoughtful about giving up a proven star with a team-friendly contract in favor of pitching that might come at too high a price. Waiting to see how the trade market develops in July could be huge for the Cubs to maintain their leadership core while also getting the veteran pitching that will throw them over the edge into a deep playoff threat.

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April 28th: Cardinals Designated Bitter

The Cardinals were the overwhelming favorite to win the NL Central this year, as they so often are. Their lineup is well balanced with young, exciting hitters, mixed in with the seasoned veterans who know how to make a playoff push. The only real area of concern was pitching depth, but the presence of veteran ace Adam Wainwright provided some assurance that the staff would, at the very least, receive a quality start every fifth day.

This past weekend, that security blanket caught fire, as Wainwright injured his achilles tendon running out a pop fly during a game against the Brewers. While his spirits appeared high on Saturday night, it was reported on Sunday that he would be out for the season.

This led to two divergent reactions. The first, expected answer was a shadow of doubt descending on the Cardinals. All of a sudden, the Central powerhouse looked vulnerable, leaving the door wide open for the surging Cubs and Pirates to take a crack at winning the division. At the same time, a spark caught fire in the debate of the use of the Designated Hitter in the National League.

The DH has been in use in the American League since 1973, allowing teams to use a hitter that goes to the plate in the place of the pitcher. Generally this is a strong hitter, with some of the game’s best including David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, and Prince Fielder. The National League does not employ this rule, and instead sends the pitcher to the plate every 9th batter.

The argument has long existed that the DH should be implemented in the National League. The presence of the pitcher in the lineup requires managers to work in much more refined ways, using pinch hitters and double switches that their AL counterparts need not utilize. Another feather in the hat of DH fans is the overall lack of offense that is spread across the league. With more pitchers dominating hitters, the NL would benefit by adding another potent bat to many lineups, and should drive up production across the board.

As a Designated Hitter, David Ortiz is one of the American
League's best hitters. Should the National League follow suit?

While the argument in favor of adding the DH is valid, the Wainwright injury should not strengthen or hurt anyone’s case. Sure, he injured himself while batting. But his injury was the kind of accident that could just have easily resulted from his stepping awkwardly off the pitcher’s mound. Major League Baseball players are required to be athletes at the highest level, including pitchers. Just because one pitcher rolled his ankle and injured himself while batting does not mean that grabbing a bat is a safety hazard that pitchers can’t afford. If the same thing had happened to an outfielder, we wouldn’t even bat an eyelash.

If the DH rule was implemented in the National League, it would require a change in makeup for most lineups. Generally, NL teams don’t have the extra big bat sitting on their bench. This would lead to some dramatic shifts away from small-ball bench players in favor of adding another bat to play every day.

Overall, the DH rule could be a valuable addition to the National League. It would lead to more offense, provide more jobs for better hitters, and allow pitchers to work on their specialty. But Adam Wainwright isn’t the reason to have the conversation. Wainwright’s injury, while occurring during an offensive opportunity, should not intimidate all pitchers out of the batter’s box.

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