April 1st: AL and NL Central Division Preview

Yesterday, we took a look at the National League and American League East Divisions. Today, it’s the Central’s turn. Both Chicago teams saw great improvement over equally abysmal years last year, while the Tigers and Cardinals look to maintain their firm grip at the top. How will things shake out? The ZP: Left Fielder predicts!

American League Central:

1. Tigers

Four time defending Central Champs has a nice ring to it. The Tigers have a solid rotation, a deep lineup, and a manager who has already seen success after just one year in the Majors. The addition of Yoenis Cespedes is huge, as he is one of the premier bats in the American League, and will benefit from protection from Cabrera and Martinez.

2. Indians

Everyone tried to forget about Cleveland, but the Tribe kept fighting last year, falling only a few games short of a Wild Card spot. Corey Kluber is a dominant, filthy pitcher, who will anchor an otherwise unpredictable staff. The roster looks to have the depth to keep the Indians in contention for the long hall. This is going to be one of the most intriguing teams to watch this year.

Michael Brantley was a force for the Indians. He will be a huge
part of the success for this year's Tribe.

3. Royals

Baseball’s greatest feel-good story of the past decade, the Royals came 90 feet away from the greatest postseason story anyone could have imagined. The emergence of Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, and even Mike Moustakas as young talents in the AL only bodes well for the future in Kansas City. This year, they will have to balance great talent with even greater expectations.

4. White Sox

Everyone is jumping on the White Sox bandwagon, and for good reason. A huge offseason left the made-over White Sox looking like contenders. The problem is that many of these additions will not be able to add up to team success, and will instead lead the Sox to flounder come July. Look for great individual performances from many, but very few collective wins.

5. Twins

Minnesota has embraced the full-scale rebuild mode, and has made some great moves to help make the process more successful in years to come. The addition of Torii Hunter gives the young guys a role model to admire, and should lead to an even brighter future. All that being said, don’t go looking for any kind of winning at Target Field this year.

National League Central:

1. Cardinals

It brings me great sadness to put the Cardinals at the top of anything. A team that made it to the NLCS for the fourth straight year, though, is hard to vote against. The addition of Heyward adds to their threatening lineup, but the rotation is an area of concern. Look for the Cardinals to be sweating it out late in September.

2. Pirates

My vote for best outfield in baseball goes to the Pirates, who have five-tool players at all three positions. The Pirates are fun to watch and go about the game the right way. They will compete with the Pirates til the very end, but still may be a transcendent ace away from stealing the Central.

3. 

   The arrival of Bryant will be the most
   anticipated event of the summer.

   Cubs

Who doesn’t want to be a Cubs fan right now? Chicago has made it known that they are done dwelling in the cellar, and that they want to compete. The greatest young talent in the game makes that a very real possibility. This team doesn’t even need ALL of the stars to pan out, just a few to make this team scary. Kris Bryant’s arrival the first week in May will be a sight to see. Bold prediction: This is a playoff team.

4. Reds

The Reds are getting no respect. They have the best righty in baseball, a former MVP coming back from injury, and a third baseman who, I believe, is ready to be a superstar. The Reds don’t have the depth to stay competitive for the entire season, but they will be a factor in a very competitive NL Central.

5. Brewers

The Brewers were in first place for much of last season and came away with nothing. Now, the jig is up. This team is not nearly as talented as they pretended to be, and Jonathan Lucroy is not enough of a superstar to carry this team by himself. This team is going to sink like a stone, and will serve as the punching bag for the far more talented competition in the NL Central.

Check back tomorrow for the breakdown of the AL and NL West!

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What's the Big Deal?

In late March of last year, the Giants locked up catcher Buster Posey on a nine-year, $167 million deal. In May, the Cubs signed Anthony Rizzo to a seven-year deal to go with Starlin Castro’s new contract which had been signed the August before.

For the next year, Major League Baseball saw an influx in signings that showed team locking up promising talent for long-term contracts, in what can only be considered an expensive gamble. The theory was as follows: if we can lock up our future before they start producing like superstars, we can pay them good money without having to pay them great money.

This is, of course, a reaction to the contracts that superstar free agents like Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols have been getting upon reaching their payday. Teams simply cannot afford to wait until stars pan out, they have to instead get them locked up early.

This is the situation that faces the Angels and Mike Trout. Trout has already proven that he has superstar talent, but he also is under team control for the next few years. Until recently, the Angels seemed content (if not a little disconcerted) to see where things would go. The problem is, though, if Trout continues his dominance, they will have to pay him more than any other player in Major League history. They probably waited one year too long, but got away with what looks like a pretty fair deal for all parties involved in Trout’s new six-year, $144.5 million deal. At the end of the six year deal, Trout would be 29, and still eligible to bring home a contract worth over $300 million.

Mike Trout is already going to make big money, with another significant contract in his future.

Baseball is at a point where the big-time contracts that are being given to the 30 year-old stars have yet to run out. We are still trying to figure out how much bang teams will most likely get for their substantial bucks. Alex Rodriguez, the “inventor” of the mega-deal, is STILL within the contract that he signed that revolutionized the money market in baseball. If he is the standard, then teams should be very concerned about signing the dotted line for these substantial contracts.

What is especially interesting is the types of players that are getting the new mid-level deals. Recently, Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals and Jason Kipnis of the Indians each signed new deals These aren’t the major slammers that get the big deals. These are the regular producers, the grinders, who would get expensive if they were let to hit the free agent market. The Cardinals and Indians basically realized what they had in their system and decided to get them locked up before anyone else could figure it out.

There is, though, the risk of investing highly in a young player who will not pan out. The Cubs are in fear of realizing this with the contracts for Rizzo and Castro. Both signed significant deals prior to (or during) the 2013 season, and proceeded to bust, having terrible years. There is, of course, optimism that the two young studs will turn things around, and that they will lead the Cubs back to the promised land, but there are, of course, risks to signing a pair of 24 year-olds to long-term, big money deals.

The landscape of baseball is changing, and we are standing on the cusp of a financial revolution. Contracts keep getting steeper and steeper, and there will come a time when we can’t get any bigger than the $240 million that Robinson Cano got from the Mariners. To save themselves from having to break the bank later, teams are becoming more interested in signing contract extensions, rather than getting into bidding wars for free agents. Young, exciting, and still growing players are reaping the benefits of these contracts, and have started the revolution in the way teams try to create their foundations for years to come.

February 28th: American League Preview

Last week, ZPLF made predictions about the 2014 National League results. This week, it’s the American League’s turn.

AL EAST:

1. Boston Red Sox: Logic says that a team that wins the World Series and keeps its roster pretty much intact should be the favorite to make another run. The 2014 Red Sox should look pretty good, with Dustin Pedroia leading the club both on and off the field. Another AL East title is well within grasp.

2. New York Yankees: The Yankees missed the playoffs for the second time in the last 20 years, and, as they did after the 2008 season, went out and spent a ton of money. The starting lineup features 5 new faces, with 18 All-Star games between them. The only fly in the ointment is that the Yankees are an old team, with every player over the age of 30. This team is totally dependent on the new guys being able to play Yankees style ball.

3. Tampa Bay Rays: We’ve all made the mistake of thinking the Rays will slide. On paper, they shouldn’t be as competitive as they are. They will, though, remain competitive in the tough AL East, but they may be missing the star power to overtake the bigger superpowers of the Red Sox and Yankees.

4. Baltimore Orioles: Last year was a disappointment after the excitement of a 2012 playoff appearance. This off-season, the Orioles added some significant pieces, including Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez in the past few weeks. This would be a playoff team in most other divisions, but this looks like a fourth place finisher.

5. Toronto Blue Jays: Oh, what a difference one year makes. Last year, this team was the disappointment of the season after a big off-season left them looking like contenders. This year, it appears as though very little was done to improve a team that finished at the bottom of a stacked division. If 7 big time new players can’t help this team win, I’m not sure anything can.

AL Central:

1. Detroit Tigers: New manager Brad Ausmus has huge shoes to fill, but having a two-time reigning MVP on your team can’t hurt. The pitching remains dominant, the lineup looks solid, and there are no gaping holes in a team that has won three straight division titles. Barring unforeseen circumstances, it doesn’t look like anything is going to change that.

2. Kansas City Royals: A young nucleus with a focus on defense, the Royals look primed for a long run of success. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas will decide how far this team goes, as they attempt to blossom into the superstars everyone is expecting from them. This is my pick for most exciting team to watch.

3. Cleveland Indians: A brilliant run to the playoffs last year left the city of Cleveland hopping with excitement. The arrival of hometown hero Nick Swisher has revitalized the city and brought hope for the future. Unfortunately for the Tribe, not a lot was done to improve upon last year’s Wild Card game losing team. Another good season appears in the books, but not a good enough one for another Cinderella story.

4. Chicago White Sox: The Sox were a confusingly, atrociously bad team last year. Make that the third worst team in Major League Baseball. The off-season brought some good young talent, including the hopeful superstar Jose Abreu. The pitching staff looks weak, except for Chris Sale, who was the one bright spot on last year’s team. This team will be streaky and most likely downright mediocre.

5. Minnesota Twins: How often does a team get considerably better, yet move down in the standings? This appears to be what will happen to the Twins, as the addition of pitchers Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco won’t be enough to bring the team to contention. The future looks bright, though, as prospects Oswaldo Arcia, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano patiently await their arrival in the Bigs.

AL West:

1. Texas Rangers: The Ranger have proven time and time again that they are going to beat you with the bat, and let the pitching staff figure itself out. The additions of Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo add two of the most important ingredients to a powerful offense. There will definitely be a void in leadership after the departure of Ian Kinsler, but as long as the team finds a way to come together, things should be looking big in Dallas.

2. Oakland Athletics: Don’t ask me to name three members of the Oakland A’s organization, because I probably can’t. I haven’t been able to name a non-Cuban or non-cereal character in the last three years, yet that hasn’t keep the A’s from winning two straight division championships. It has become impossible to count this team out, but they aren’t in a place worth predicting big things consistently yet, either.

3. Los Angeles Angels: Having the best player in baseball will do great things for an organization. The Angels have been disappointing for the past two years, but a healthy Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton in the same lineup as Mike Trout make a team impossible to ignore. The pitching has been the issue, and there hasn’t been much done to make it better. We’ll see if Tyler Skaggs can make this team a viable contender.

4. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners win the award for most busy off-season, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into regular season success. Robinson Cano will sell tickets, but he isn’t enough to launch this team into a real division race. I expect the Mariners to serve as spoilers for the race between the Rangers and A’s.

5. Houston Astros: The rebuilding process is a long a tired one for Astros fans. The addition of Dexter Fowler will make this team a little better than the 111 loss team from a year ago. Plus, the development of double-play combination Jose Altuve and Jonathan Villar looks to be one to watch. This will be bad in 2014 for Houston, but not as bad as many might believe.