April 24th: Contenders and Pretenders

The Major League Baseball season is wrapping up it’s third week, and teams are beginning to realize that the pleasant optimism of March doesn’t always carry over into the season. Some teams have come out as surprises, while others have faltered to a disappointing open. Which teams are legit? Which teams will fade down the stretch? The ZP: Left Fielder looks at which teams will continue as they are and which will turn things around, whether for the better or not.

Real Contenders:

American League - Detroit Tigers

This offense is terrifying. Yoenis Cespedes looks to be a perfect addition to a lineup that already included Miguel Cabrera, J.D. and Victor Martinez, and Ian Kinsler. The pitching has also been stellar, as Alfredo Simon looks to be continuing to develop into the All-Star he was last season. A healthy Justin Verlander would be the icing on the cake. Also, is Jose Iglesias even human? His defense is some of the most fun to watch in baseball.

National League - San Diego Padres

I’ve had issues with the revamped Padres, who have a lineup that, while daunting, doesn’t necessarily look like it will gel together. San Diego has come out looking strong, though, and seem to be in contention for the West. Most importantly, the pitching staff has the potential to be filthy dominant, with Tyson Ross as a nasty game-changer.

Pretenders:

American League - Houston Astros

Raise your hand if you expected the Astros to be leading the division after the first three weeks? I thought not. Unfortunately, this isn’t going to continue very long. As the rest of the division heats up and the young Astros squad comes back to earth, this team will fade out a bit. This might be a sign of things to come, though, and a reason to get excited in Texas for the future.

National League - New York Mets

The Mets are baseball’s hottest team, with a long win streak under their belts. The excitement surrounding this team is huge, and will definitely drive them forward. Unfortunately, like the Astros, the rest of the division will soon heat up, and the loss of David Wright (again) leaves New York vulnerable to a downward spiral. It won’t be devastating, but this team is gearing up for a drop-off.

Real Bad:

American League: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox were supposed to be the greatest thing to ever happen to baseball after a busy offseason, but that hasn’t been the case. They were absolutely knocked around by the Royals early on, and haven’t gotten their feet set. The return of Chris Sale will help, but this team is not the powerhouse many expected. Expect us to be talking about this team as the biggest disappointment of the year come the offseason.

National League: Milwaukee Brewers

We knew the Brewers would fall from their pedestal after last season’s epic run and eventual fall. But did anyone see this coming? The Brewers can’t seem to win anything, and they have been the punching bag for an angry Cincinnati team this week. Don’t expect things to get any better now that Jonathan Lucroy is out with foot injury.

Slow Starts:

American League: Los Angeles Angels/Seattle Mariners

These two are expected to be the clash of titans on the West Coast deep into September. That being said, both have records with something left to be desired. The Angels’ Tuesday night beatdown of the As is a big sign of things to come, though, while the Mariners have a long list of perennial All-Stars that just haven’t heated up yet (yet being the key word). These two will turn into everything baseball fans expect, and leave their slow starts behind them.

National League: Washington Nationals

The Nationals were supposed to be unbeatable, and yet they sit just around .500 at the 10% mark of the season. Denard Span and Jayson Werth have come back from injuries, though, and a big walk-off win on Tuesday night could be enough to get the swagger going in D.C. This team is going to be formidable, it is just a matter of when.

April 3rd: MLB Playoff Preview

Before we’ve played a single game, I’ve predicted the final standings for all six MLB divisions. Now, I take a look at the way the postseason will shape up. Who wins the World Series? You’re about to find out!

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AL Wild Card:

Mariners over Indians - A faceoff between last year’s Cy Young finalists, Kluber is going to be enough to get the Tribe to the game, but the Mariners lineup will be able to get Seattle into the next round.

NL Wild Card:

Pirates over Cubs - The Cubs squeak in on the last day of the season, while the Pirates cruise to the postseason, only barely falling short of St. Louis. While Chicago owns the hearts of the country, the Pirates own the talent, and a third straight WC game gives Pittsburgh the edge.

AL Division Series:

Angels over Mariners - A division showdown in the Division Series. The Mariners will try to seek their revenge after losing out on the division crown, but the Angels will be out for blood after their embarrassing loss to Kansas City a year ago. Angels will win it in four.

Red Sox over Tigers - The matchup of the two best lineups in the American League will be a slugfest, especially if the pitching staffs limp into the postseason. This is totally dependent on who’s hot as the season expires, but the Red Sox have Kung Fu Panda, who knows how to get it done in October.

NL Division Series:

Nationals over Pirates - The Nationals will have an absolutely unbeatable staff, built for a long postseason run. The Pirates will, for the third straight year, draw a bad matchup in the postseason, and be headed home early. Luckily, they will have proven their intent to compete, so free agents will flock to Pittsburgh in 2016.

Dodgers over Cardinals - Clayton Kershaw will be begging for the ball in this series, and he will get his revenge. The Cardinals won’t have the pitching depth to make this year their year, and will watch as the Dodgers take their place in the next round.

AL Championship Series:

Angels over Red Sox - The cross country series will feature two teams with question marks at pitcher but rosters so deep, they will score by the truckload. I’m going with my gut and picking the Angels, who feel like they are ready to make the jump to postseason elite.

NL Championship Series:

Nationals over Dodgers - The pitching matchups in this series will make anyone drool. Look for Kershaw to square off against Scherzer, leaving Strasburg to make his October name for himself the following night. In the end, the Dodgers won’t be able to compete offensively with the Nationals, and Washington will visit the Fall Classic.

World Series:

Nationals over Angels - Baseball’s greatest pitching staff will face off against the greatest offense, in a baseball version of the Denver-Seattle Super Bowl. The matchup between Mike Trout and now MVP favorite Bryce Harper will be an epic battle that will set the tone for the future of the game. In the end, masterful pitching will once again decide the outcome of the game, and Harper’s Spring Training predictions will come away looking prophetic. The World Series Champions will be the Washington Nationals!

That’s how the ZP: Left Fielder sees the Major League Baseball season shaping up. Will it end the way we predict? Probably not. Don’t worry, though. I’ll be here in October to pick them again!

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April 2nd: MLB West Division Predictions

We wrap up our breakdown of every team in baseball with the West divisions. With the Mariners surging and the Astros growing ever-closer to their 2017 World Series date, the AL is full of excitement. Meanwhile, the NL holds the dominant Dodgers and the defending World Champs. The West will most certainly be wild this year.

American League West:

1. Angels

Everyone wants to declare the Angels secondary in their division, but that lineup is fierce. Having the greatest player on the planet helps, and I see Albert Pujols continuing to rebuild his career as he learns what it means to be an older player. The pitching is the one area of question, but this team is going to be better than anyone is giving them credit for.

2. Mariners

This looks to be the preeminent favorite to come out of the American League in October. I am not so sure, though, as the Mariners have a lot of growing and learning to do. Strong on all sides of the ball, the Mariners will be fun to watch this year, but we all need to keep our enthusiasm in check a little bit, as there is a lack of experience on this team that could cause a hiccup down the stretch.

3. Astros

Don’t look now, but the Astros look like they are getting to compete sooner rather than later. George Springer is going to be a star in this league, while the rest of the lineup saw great improvement with some wise offseason moves. The pitching is an area of concern, but the Astros are trending up, and could turn a lot of heads.

4. Athletics

Every year I predict the A’s won’t be as good as we expect, and every year the A’s are better than we expect. This year might just be the first time I’m right. A full blown fire sale left almost no one you’ve ever heard of on this team, and, while Billy Beane has always been a genius, his selling may have caught up to him this time.

5. Rangers

The Rangers were baseball’s least lucky team last year, and this year doesn’t look to be much better. The end to Yu Darvish’s season is a huge blow, and the Rangers are putting a lot of love behind Prince Fielder, who is coming off a serious injury. This team could be much better than I expect, but, if we learned anything from last year, it’s that you can’t get your hopes up in Arlington.

National League West:

1. Dodgers

The Dodgers had a dominant 2014 campaign come to a dramatic end, as Clayton Kershaw fell from grace in the postseason. This year, the team will bide their time until they can get their October revenge. A great lineup and a great rotation means this team will have no problem finding their way into the playoffs. What they do from there will define them.

2. Giants

Three championships in five years? This team is a dynasty, and Buster Posey is the reason why. While it would be clever to claim that this will be a down (odd numbered) year, the Giants will be competitive, and will be led by two of the brightest young stars in the sport in Posey and MadBum. The Giants aren’t as strong as they were in October, but they will still be a force.

3. Padres

The Padres will have six new starters on Opening Day, causing many to declare the Padres ready for contention. I’m not entirely sure that all of the pieces will come together as nicely as others might believe. This team will hit plenty of home runs, and the pitching will keep them competitive, but this will be the biggest disappointment of the season by a wide margin.

4. 
   Diamondbacks

I’ve loved the moves the Diamondbacks have made since Tony La Russa took over. If I were a pitcher, I would hide under the bed at the thought of Goldschmidt, Trumbo, and Thomas back to back to back. The young outfield corps is also very intriguing, and will give this team a spark. If it weren’t for a dreary pitching staff, I would boldly predict that this team would be my sleeper pick. Maybe next offseason they’ll be ready to finish the rebuild.

5. Rockies

The Rockies are a team full of parts, none of which can bring together the finished product. Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, Morneau, Blackmon, Arenado; there is plenty of star power, but nothing to show for it. This team needs to aggressively commit to rebuilding, and actually put together a product that can compete in all phases of the game.

Check back tomorrow for a look at the playoff picture and a full prediction. Who will come away with the Commissioner's Trophy in October? You’ll find out tomorrow!

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February 26th: A Fallen Angel

The report was that the offense was “worse” than Performance Enhancing Drugs. Most baseball players can’t commit an act worse than PEDs. Most players aren’t Josh Hamilton.

Hamilton, a recovering alcoholic and drug addict, had a relapse. The incident occurred a few months ago, according to reports, and while Hamilton did not fail any drug tests, he self-reported his crime against himself to Major League Baseball. He met with MLB executives yesterday to discuss course of action going forward, including a possible suspension.

Upon hearing the news, my heart broke. I read Hamilton’s biography. I have followed his career closely. I am a big fan of his, not because of his identity as a baseball player, but as his identity as a man. As I write this post, I’m wearing my Josh Hamilton jersey.

It is easy to be a role model when life is easy. It is so hard to work against your inner demons and be the best that you can be. Josh Hamilton is a man of faith. Josh Hamilton is a man of family. But Josh Hamilton is only a man.

Everyone is jumping to try to write down the sentiment that most baseball fans are feeling: this sucks. It sucks that a good guy got swept up in a bad thing. It sucks that so much hard work deteriorates because of a period of weakness. When Josh Hamilton fails to remain sober, the entire baseball community, players, coaches, and fans, fail right with him.

And baseball media hasn’t done him any favors. After two mediocre and injury laced years, the press has called him one of the biggest bust contracts in baseball history. They have put endless pressure on him to perform up to the dollar value that the Angels gave him. He has been the recipient of near-constant criticism. No wonder he was having a tough time.

We can’t go too easy on him, just because he has a tough history. He’s playing a game against the best in the world, and needs to be judged accordingly. But his strife reminds us that we aren’t dealing with robots who perform at our will. He is a real person, an honest to goodness human being, who can have his feelings hurt, which can lead to some tough stuff. In Josh’s case, really tough stuff.

While I understand that rules are rules, and the Hamilton will need to be penalized in some way, the baseball community owes it to Josh Hamilton to help guide him in the right direction, rather than cutting him loose. He self-reported his "incident." He came forward and did what he knew was right, even though it meant bringing upon himself a world of trouble. He needs to be commended for that. If I were in charge, his suspension would start immediately, regardless of his pre-existing injury. That way, when Josh is healthy, both physically and mentally, he can return to the game that he needs, and that needs him.

Josh Hamilton is an important part of the baseball community, and everyone involved needs to be there to support him. He had one of the greatest seasons in Major League Baseball history, and we owe it to him to get him back there, with a healthy dose of love, support, and guidance.

Americans love a comeback. Josh Hamilton was one of our favorite stories, especially in 2010. To see a man rise from the ashes and turn his life around gives you that great feeling, knowing that you just witnessed something special. While a relapse is a terrible thing for Hamilton to go through, it gives him, and all Americans, the opportunity to work toward and to look forward to his next big comeback. It’s about baseball, but it’s also about so much more.

What's the Big Deal?

In late March of last year, the Giants locked up catcher Buster Posey on a nine-year, $167 million deal. In May, the Cubs signed Anthony Rizzo to a seven-year deal to go with Starlin Castro’s new contract which had been signed the August before.

For the next year, Major League Baseball saw an influx in signings that showed team locking up promising talent for long-term contracts, in what can only be considered an expensive gamble. The theory was as follows: if we can lock up our future before they start producing like superstars, we can pay them good money without having to pay them great money.

This is, of course, a reaction to the contracts that superstar free agents like Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols have been getting upon reaching their payday. Teams simply cannot afford to wait until stars pan out, they have to instead get them locked up early.

This is the situation that faces the Angels and Mike Trout. Trout has already proven that he has superstar talent, but he also is under team control for the next few years. Until recently, the Angels seemed content (if not a little disconcerted) to see where things would go. The problem is, though, if Trout continues his dominance, they will have to pay him more than any other player in Major League history. They probably waited one year too long, but got away with what looks like a pretty fair deal for all parties involved in Trout’s new six-year, $144.5 million deal. At the end of the six year deal, Trout would be 29, and still eligible to bring home a contract worth over $300 million.

Mike Trout is already going to make big money, with another significant contract in his future.

Baseball is at a point where the big-time contracts that are being given to the 30 year-old stars have yet to run out. We are still trying to figure out how much bang teams will most likely get for their substantial bucks. Alex Rodriguez, the “inventor” of the mega-deal, is STILL within the contract that he signed that revolutionized the money market in baseball. If he is the standard, then teams should be very concerned about signing the dotted line for these substantial contracts.

What is especially interesting is the types of players that are getting the new mid-level deals. Recently, Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals and Jason Kipnis of the Indians each signed new deals These aren’t the major slammers that get the big deals. These are the regular producers, the grinders, who would get expensive if they were let to hit the free agent market. The Cardinals and Indians basically realized what they had in their system and decided to get them locked up before anyone else could figure it out.

There is, though, the risk of investing highly in a young player who will not pan out. The Cubs are in fear of realizing this with the contracts for Rizzo and Castro. Both signed significant deals prior to (or during) the 2013 season, and proceeded to bust, having terrible years. There is, of course, optimism that the two young studs will turn things around, and that they will lead the Cubs back to the promised land, but there are, of course, risks to signing a pair of 24 year-olds to long-term, big money deals.

The landscape of baseball is changing, and we are standing on the cusp of a financial revolution. Contracts keep getting steeper and steeper, and there will come a time when we can’t get any bigger than the $240 million that Robinson Cano got from the Mariners. To save themselves from having to break the bank later, teams are becoming more interested in signing contract extensions, rather than getting into bidding wars for free agents. Young, exciting, and still growing players are reaping the benefits of these contracts, and have started the revolution in the way teams try to create their foundations for years to come.

February 28th: American League Preview

Last week, ZPLF made predictions about the 2014 National League results. This week, it’s the American League’s turn.

AL EAST:

1. Boston Red Sox: Logic says that a team that wins the World Series and keeps its roster pretty much intact should be the favorite to make another run. The 2014 Red Sox should look pretty good, with Dustin Pedroia leading the club both on and off the field. Another AL East title is well within grasp.

2. New York Yankees: The Yankees missed the playoffs for the second time in the last 20 years, and, as they did after the 2008 season, went out and spent a ton of money. The starting lineup features 5 new faces, with 18 All-Star games between them. The only fly in the ointment is that the Yankees are an old team, with every player over the age of 30. This team is totally dependent on the new guys being able to play Yankees style ball.

3. Tampa Bay Rays: We’ve all made the mistake of thinking the Rays will slide. On paper, they shouldn’t be as competitive as they are. They will, though, remain competitive in the tough AL East, but they may be missing the star power to overtake the bigger superpowers of the Red Sox and Yankees.

4. Baltimore Orioles: Last year was a disappointment after the excitement of a 2012 playoff appearance. This off-season, the Orioles added some significant pieces, including Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez in the past few weeks. This would be a playoff team in most other divisions, but this looks like a fourth place finisher.

5. Toronto Blue Jays: Oh, what a difference one year makes. Last year, this team was the disappointment of the season after a big off-season left them looking like contenders. This year, it appears as though very little was done to improve a team that finished at the bottom of a stacked division. If 7 big time new players can’t help this team win, I’m not sure anything can.

AL Central:

1. Detroit Tigers: New manager Brad Ausmus has huge shoes to fill, but having a two-time reigning MVP on your team can’t hurt. The pitching remains dominant, the lineup looks solid, and there are no gaping holes in a team that has won three straight division titles. Barring unforeseen circumstances, it doesn’t look like anything is going to change that.

2. Kansas City Royals: A young nucleus with a focus on defense, the Royals look primed for a long run of success. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas will decide how far this team goes, as they attempt to blossom into the superstars everyone is expecting from them. This is my pick for most exciting team to watch.

3. Cleveland Indians: A brilliant run to the playoffs last year left the city of Cleveland hopping with excitement. The arrival of hometown hero Nick Swisher has revitalized the city and brought hope for the future. Unfortunately for the Tribe, not a lot was done to improve upon last year’s Wild Card game losing team. Another good season appears in the books, but not a good enough one for another Cinderella story.

4. Chicago White Sox: The Sox were a confusingly, atrociously bad team last year. Make that the third worst team in Major League Baseball. The off-season brought some good young talent, including the hopeful superstar Jose Abreu. The pitching staff looks weak, except for Chris Sale, who was the one bright spot on last year’s team. This team will be streaky and most likely downright mediocre.

5. Minnesota Twins: How often does a team get considerably better, yet move down in the standings? This appears to be what will happen to the Twins, as the addition of pitchers Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco won’t be enough to bring the team to contention. The future looks bright, though, as prospects Oswaldo Arcia, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano patiently await their arrival in the Bigs.

AL West:

1. Texas Rangers: The Ranger have proven time and time again that they are going to beat you with the bat, and let the pitching staff figure itself out. The additions of Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo add two of the most important ingredients to a powerful offense. There will definitely be a void in leadership after the departure of Ian Kinsler, but as long as the team finds a way to come together, things should be looking big in Dallas.

2. Oakland Athletics: Don’t ask me to name three members of the Oakland A’s organization, because I probably can’t. I haven’t been able to name a non-Cuban or non-cereal character in the last three years, yet that hasn’t keep the A’s from winning two straight division championships. It has become impossible to count this team out, but they aren’t in a place worth predicting big things consistently yet, either.

3. Los Angeles Angels: Having the best player in baseball will do great things for an organization. The Angels have been disappointing for the past two years, but a healthy Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton in the same lineup as Mike Trout make a team impossible to ignore. The pitching has been the issue, and there hasn’t been much done to make it better. We’ll see if Tyler Skaggs can make this team a viable contender.

4. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners win the award for most busy off-season, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into regular season success. Robinson Cano will sell tickets, but he isn’t enough to launch this team into a real division race. I expect the Mariners to serve as spoilers for the race between the Rangers and A’s.

5. Houston Astros: The rebuilding process is a long a tired one for Astros fans. The addition of Dexter Fowler will make this team a little better than the 111 loss team from a year ago. Plus, the development of double-play combination Jose Altuve and Jonathan Villar looks to be one to watch. This will be bad in 2014 for Houston, but not as bad as many might believe.