July 13th: Home Run Derby Preview

While this year’s Home Run Derby comes with some rule changes, including a new timed format, as well as a bracket of eight contestants, it remains one of the top events in showcasing the fun and exciting sides of the sport of baseball. Last season, I was able to experience it first hand at Target Field, and while this year will not be quite as exciting, there is still plenty to look forward to.

With two Cubs, two rookies, a former winner, and last year’s runner up, there is plenty of excitement to anticipate for today’s event. Great American Ballpark is also one of baseball's best smaller parks, meaning home runs will be flying out of there. Here is the ZP: Left Fielder breakdown of how Monday’s action will play out.

First Round:

Albert Pujols vs. Kris Bryant

From the past generation of home run kings to the future, this is the matchup of the rookie against the wily veteran. Pujols has gotten his stride back, and is pacing the Junior Circuit in bombs, while Bryant has the pop to be a major power threat. While the youngster has an amazing swing, it might not translate into the derby, and Pujols has the leg up on experience, so in this case, Pujols is like a fine wine: he’s getting better with age.

Winner: Pujols

Joc Pederson vs. Manny Machado

Pederson has been this season’s top rookie, and has proven it with his glove, his contact, and his power. Meanwhile, Machado has bounced back quite nicely from injury and is turning in a monster season. In this case, Pederson’s swing is a thing of beauty that will be better served for the new format. Youth movement wins this time around.

Winner: Pederson

Josh Donaldson vs. Anthony Rizzo

Two of the game’s most compelling sluggers draw the matchup to watch in this year’s Derby. Donaldson found his home run swing a year ago, and has kept the Blue Jays on a tear with his bat. Anthony Rizzo is leading a very young Cubs team by simply raking. Rizzo’s looping swing will cause a mighty number to leave the yard, and his familiarity with the park may be to his advantage here.

Winner: Rizzo

Todd Frazier vs. Prince Fielder

The home-town hero against the two-time past winner leaves fans with plenty to cheer for. Fielder has been feeling it this year, bouncing back from injury and keeping the Rangers afloat. Meanwhile, Frazier has been the one bright spot in a Reds team limping into the home-hosted All-Star Break. Look for Frazier to ride the high of the home fans and take down the Prince.

Winner: Frazier

Second Round:

Pujols vs. Pederson

It seems like Pujols will be spending much of the night beating back rookies with a stick. Well, that’s exactly what he will be doing. While Pederson is an impressive young slugger, he is no match for the Machine.

Winner: Pujols

Rizzo vs. Frazier

Division rivals square off in what will be the future of two franchises hoping to bring glory to their midwestern homes. Again, Frazier’s hometown help won’t hurt, but it is his having been through this competition before that will best serve him as he sends Rizzo packing in the second round.

Winner: Frazier

Third Round:

Pujols vs. Frazier

Albert Pujols continues his season of bringing everyone back on his bandwagon by squaring off against Cincinnati’s future Mayor in the finals. While Frazier’s experience has gotten him here, he is facing someone also familiar with the finals, after Pujols went there in 2003 at U.S. Cellular Field. Pujols has the perfect footwork to put on a fireworks display and hoist the trophy at the end of the night.

Winner: Pujols

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What's the Big Deal?

In late March of last year, the Giants locked up catcher Buster Posey on a nine-year, $167 million deal. In May, the Cubs signed Anthony Rizzo to a seven-year deal to go with Starlin Castro’s new contract which had been signed the August before.

For the next year, Major League Baseball saw an influx in signings that showed team locking up promising talent for long-term contracts, in what can only be considered an expensive gamble. The theory was as follows: if we can lock up our future before they start producing like superstars, we can pay them good money without having to pay them great money.

This is, of course, a reaction to the contracts that superstar free agents like Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols have been getting upon reaching their payday. Teams simply cannot afford to wait until stars pan out, they have to instead get them locked up early.

This is the situation that faces the Angels and Mike Trout. Trout has already proven that he has superstar talent, but he also is under team control for the next few years. Until recently, the Angels seemed content (if not a little disconcerted) to see where things would go. The problem is, though, if Trout continues his dominance, they will have to pay him more than any other player in Major League history. They probably waited one year too long, but got away with what looks like a pretty fair deal for all parties involved in Trout’s new six-year, $144.5 million deal. At the end of the six year deal, Trout would be 29, and still eligible to bring home a contract worth over $300 million.

Mike Trout is already going to make big money, with another significant contract in his future.

Baseball is at a point where the big-time contracts that are being given to the 30 year-old stars have yet to run out. We are still trying to figure out how much bang teams will most likely get for their substantial bucks. Alex Rodriguez, the “inventor” of the mega-deal, is STILL within the contract that he signed that revolutionized the money market in baseball. If he is the standard, then teams should be very concerned about signing the dotted line for these substantial contracts.

What is especially interesting is the types of players that are getting the new mid-level deals. Recently, Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals and Jason Kipnis of the Indians each signed new deals These aren’t the major slammers that get the big deals. These are the regular producers, the grinders, who would get expensive if they were let to hit the free agent market. The Cardinals and Indians basically realized what they had in their system and decided to get them locked up before anyone else could figure it out.

There is, though, the risk of investing highly in a young player who will not pan out. The Cubs are in fear of realizing this with the contracts for Rizzo and Castro. Both signed significant deals prior to (or during) the 2013 season, and proceeded to bust, having terrible years. There is, of course, optimism that the two young studs will turn things around, and that they will lead the Cubs back to the promised land, but there are, of course, risks to signing a pair of 24 year-olds to long-term, big money deals.

The landscape of baseball is changing, and we are standing on the cusp of a financial revolution. Contracts keep getting steeper and steeper, and there will come a time when we can’t get any bigger than the $240 million that Robinson Cano got from the Mariners. To save themselves from having to break the bank later, teams are becoming more interested in signing contract extensions, rather than getting into bidding wars for free agents. Young, exciting, and still growing players are reaping the benefits of these contracts, and have started the revolution in the way teams try to create their foundations for years to come.