March 31st: MLB East Division Predictions

The greatest day of the year is fast approaching: Major League Baseball Opening Day! As we start the season, every team believes they are about to embark on a playoff chase, and hope is in the air.

There is an old saying: Everyone is going to win 54 games. Everyone is going to lose 54 games. It is what you do with the other 54 that really counts. This week, the ZP: Left Fielder is going to attempt to decide how each team will fare in the coming season. Division by division, we will break down the playoff predictions and final standings, attempting to guess at what the next six months have in store for us.

Today, we will take a look at the East divisions in the American and National Leagues. Tomorrow we will tackle the Central, and, finally, on Thursday the West. Friday will feature the final playoff predictions.

Let’s get started!

American League East:

1. 

   Old and new faces will help lead Boston back to contention.

   Red Sox

The Red Sox have made a habit out of going from worst to first and back again. After an abysmal 2014, Boston went out and spent the money to revamp the team. The outfield is not only crowded but abundantly talented, and Dustin Pedroia anchors a solid infield. This team is deep, and, despite the lack of a single, dominant ace, the pitching will keep the offense in ball games.

2. Orioles

The offseason was not kind in Baltimore, as the team struggled to replace the big bats that departed. The pitching remains to be an area of strength, and the Orioles maintained their centerpieces with Adam Jones and Manny Machado, but there should be a little bit of a slip for the defending AL East Champs.

3. Yankees

Now that the Derek Jeter festivities are over and gone, the Yankees will have to find a new way to entertain fans. Winning would be a nice place to start. The team has some of the best talent in baseball, but age and health are problems that leads the Yankees to be one of the most polarizing teams to predict. They will either be great or terrible, and it’s hard to tell which.

4. Blue Jays

Things were finally looking up for Canada’s team. The signing or Russell Martin made it seem like they were finally serious about winning. The young guns in the system were looking like they were ready to have an impact. Then, Marcus Stroman went down, and gloom set in. This team will be in the hunt until the first week of August, and slowly start to sputter from a lack of experience in a playoff race. Maybe next year, Blue Jays fans.

5. Rays

If any team can make something out of the nothing going on in Tampa, this may be the one. That being said, it is impossible to have too much faith in a team that looks like a minor league spring training team forgot to head north. This will be a rebuilding year, but that could mean big things for the future Rays. The future looks bright, just not in 2015.

National League East:

1. Nationals

The Nationals had one of the best rotations in baseball last year. Then they added Max Scherzer. This team will be absolutely dominant in the National League, and an overall weak division will lead Washington to the playoffs by a wide margin. Expect Bryce Harper to bounce back and have an MVP-caliber season.

2. Marlins

The Marlins are a popular pick for a team looking to hit it’s stride. It may be a little early yet, though. Stanton had a monster year last year, and Dee Gordon was a good addition to the infield. Overall, the Marlins are intriguing, but a young team is bound to have growing pains, so we might need to keep our expectations reasonable.

3. Mets

The Mets look to be a shortstop away from contention. Well, that shortstop has proved elusive, and David Wright has proven that, despite flashes of brilliance, his health is the thing standing between him and leading this team to the promised land. The young pitching will make this team interesting, but the Mets need to keep adding to the mix at a little more aggressive of a pace.

4. Braves

I’m not entirely sure what the Braves did this offseason. They looked like they were in full-blown rebuild mode, but also signed Nick Markakis to a relatively large contract. The team has a franchise player in Freddie Freeman, but is going to have to go through a few tough months before there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

5. Phillies

Three years ago, the Phillies were the most terrifying team in the National League. Now, they are scary bad. They did little this winter to help their case, and the rebuilding process doesn’t look to be going very well. The Phillies will have a season to forget, and will try to sell everyone they possibly can come July.

Check back in tomorrow for the Central Divisions predictions!

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May 14th: Gun Slingers Beware

After a Rookie of the Year win and a third place finish in the Cy Young voting, Jose Fernandez was sitting pretty in Miami. The team began the season with the best home record in baseball, and was an overall shock, undoubtedly, at least in part, due to their young stud ace.

That all came to a screeching halt on Monday when Twitter began to blow up with rumors that Fernandez was being put on the Disabled List. What began as an elbow strain eventually became a season-ending possibility. Although the Marlins will continue to evaluate the situation, it looks like they will be without their best pitcher for the year.

Fernandez joins a long list of young flame-throwers who have lost a year to arm surgery, most notably Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals and Matt Harvey of the Mets. In each case, the game’s brightest pitching stars are sustaining arm injuries that require major surgery.

What, though, does this growing trend say about the future of the game? Young guns are an important part of building a dynasty, but the need to wait an extra year can not only cause a pause in a playoff push but can also risk the player not recovering in the ways that the team may want.

Another piece of the puzzle is the ethical issues associated with asking players to give their all in a way that will almost inevitably lead to injury. It isn’t that these players are being mismanaged in the majors. They are being coached to the point of injury from the time they first demonstrate their unbelievable skills. This may be as early as middle school. A kid who can throw the hardest becomes the biggest star of his high school team, his college club, and even his minor league affiliate for the franchise that will be betting the farm on him. This gets to the complexity of the issue: these players are being asked to perform, to play for their team, in ways that will both get them the big contract, but also the big hurt.

Going forward, coaches at every level needed to be trained what to do when they are blessed with talented young men to throw the baseball. While a young kid might want to pitch every inning of the season, it is to a disadvantage for his long-term success to put that much strain on his elbow.

For the Marlins, and all of major league baseball, the best they can hope for is a speedy recovery and a 2015 return of the same dominant star from the past. As eyebrows begin to go up, though, about the new epidemic of elbow injuries, it is clear that something is going to have to change. It might be a new era of hitting dominance. It may be a new era of subtle, finnessed pitching rather than knockdown heat. EIther way, the injury to Fernandez is, quite possibly, the beginning of a change in Major League Baseball.

February 22nd: National League Preview

The 162 game baseball season is a marathon. Yet, in Spring Training, it is easy enough to let the excitement get the best of you. Everyone is trying to guess where the standings will wind up September 29^th. In this case, the Zoot Perspective Left Fielder will attempt to predict the standings for the 2014 baseball season. This week we’ll tackle the National League, next week the American League.

NL East:

     1,  Washington Nationals: Last year was a season to forget in DC. With their mysterious hitting woes behind them, the Nationals should prove why they were such heavy favorites to win last year. One of the strongest starting rotations allows even a rough start for the lineup to remain a scary threat for the division title.

     2. Atlanta Braves: The first team to clinch last year has a lot of question marks, including which pair of Upton brothers will show up. This team will live and die by the bat of Freddie Freeman, who is out to prove that his big new contract was no accident.

     3.   New York Mets: Young pitching leads another new wave of Mets, led by Dillon Gee and Zack Wheeler. Missing Matt Harvey will hurt, though, and David Wright’s questionable durability may be the difference for a franchise that lacks the offense to put up big numbers. Another mediocre year awaits.

     4. Philadelphia Phillies: The past few years have not been kind to the aging Phillies, as the 2008 World Series is shrinking in the rearview mirror. An identity crisis is in the cards as Philadelphia attempts to decide whether they want to compete now or rebuild for their future.

     5.  Miami Marlins: An offseason of smart moves makes this Marlins team better than the terrifyingly bad on from a year ago. Jarrod Saltalamacchia does not make you a champion, though. This team will be better, but not by much.

NL Central:

      1. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are perennial threats to make the playoffs, and this year appears to be no exception. A strong core of talent and some offseason improvements from last year’s NL pennant winners should put them in contention to return to the World Series. The one question mark will be to see how young pitchers Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller respond to their sophomore campaigns.

     2. Pittsburgh Pirates: The loss of some key rentals from last year’s playoff team could bode badly for the Buccos. The taste of victory is on the lips of Pittsburgh fans, though, so the club should be hungry for more. Having defending NL MVP Andrew McCutchen and rising stars OF Starling Marte and SP Gerrit Cole should make this team contenders for quite a few years to come.

     3.  Cincinnati Reds: Two years ago, this team won the division in stunning fashion. Last year, they fell in the Wild Card game. Unfortunately, the slide may continue for a team that is relying heavily on the production of some young stars. This will be a good ball club, but most likely not a great one.

     4. Chicago Cubs: The future looks bright in Chicago. The question is, how long will fans have to wait? Bounce-back years from Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo should lead a young team into a more comfortable place. This year isn’t the year, but it’s going to be good practice for the very exciting 2015 season.

     5.  Milwaukee Brewers: Although stealthily subtle moves to improve the rotation have helped, the Brewers are far removed from the days of competing in the NL Central. This team will most likely flounder unless Carlos Gomez can continue to rise and Ryan Braun can return in full form (minus the steroids).

NL West:

     1.  Los Angeles Dodgers: The biggest question facing the Dodgers is who will be the odd man out in a too-talented outfield. That’s a good problem to have. Starting pitching and young talent headline a team with an expectation for a World Series win. This team looks like the real deal.

   

     2. San Fransisco Giants: A team that wins the World Series and returns almost the whole lineup should do pretty well, right? Apparently not, as last year’s Giants proved. This year, though, things should be back to normal, as the Giants take a stab at the wild card or even a chance to unseat the Dodgers. Either way, that rivalry will be fun this summer.

     3.  Arizona Diamondbacks: This team is going to be hard to predict. The potential is there for a real playoff threat, while there is also the chance for a big flop. The big questions are whether Mark Trumbo can provide some support for Paul Goldschmidt, and whether or not the starting pitching can keep the Diamondbacks going.

     4. San Diego Padres: A very similar group from the 2013 squad, this team is supposed to develop into a solid core of players. Key words: supposed to. Expectations are high and, unless someone steps up as the star of this team, they will most likely not be met.

     5.Colorado Rockies: Some young stars exist in Nolan Arenado and Wilin Rosario, and Carlos Gonzalez will continue to be a yearly MVP candidate, but otherwise this team appears a little lackluster. In an otherwise strong division, this team just doesn’t look to have what it takes to make a big impact on the race come August or September.

The Fan Maker

Dear Mr. Prior,

It was with sadness that I learned of your retirement from Major League Baseball. For a player who showed so much potential, a flash of brilliance, it is always disappointing to know that we must close the book with no hope for a comeback.

I was 10 in 2002 when you made your debut with my hometown Chicago Cubs. It didn’t take long for you to become a household name, which most certainly included my home.

Until that year, I had only been to one Cubs game. I was a mild fan. As the 2002 season began, though, I couldn’t avoid the excitement swirling around. I began to follow the team with you in the middle of it. You were relatable, a young star bringing baseball to a city. I would check the newspaper every day, just to see what you’d done. When I went to a Cubs game that season, I bought a collector baseball with your name and jersey number on the back. Today, that collection has swelled to over 40 from more than 20 ball clubs, and yours still holds the top spot on the shelf.

By 2003, “Prior Fever” in Chicago had reached critical mass. You didn’t let us down, with an All-Star selection and a third-place finish in the Cy Young Award voting. We would have elected you mayor of the city if given the chance. Your numbers could have spoken for themselves. Instead, the Cubs won the National League Central and brought playoff baseball to the North Side for the first time in 6 seasons. Between you and Kerry Wood, it didn’t matter what happened on offense, you would shut things down on the mound.

The Marlins series was epic. The Cubs seemed in the driver’s seat. Maybe it was just my bias, or the skew of Monday Morning Quarterbacking, but it just felt like our year. In game 6, you threw 7 innings of a masterpiece. In the eighth inning, everything changed. Maybe it was the Bartman play. Maybe it was Alex Gonzalez’s booted ground ball. Maybe it was a curse placed on us by an angry goat owner. Whatever it was, the momentum swung and that was the end of things. We fought, clawed and begged. But the loss from that game gave all of the positive momentum to Florida, who overcame another Cubs lead and took the World Series by storm.

Watching the ending of that series, I cried. I had never cried because of baseball before. I was old enough to know that there was no crying in baseball, yet loved the game enough to know that there absolutely is.

As we would come to learn, though, the ending of that playoff series was also the end of your dominance. Flashes of brilliance from then on were permeated by periods of injury and struggles. Your tenure with the Cubs ended, and you bounced around the league, looking for different places to restart your career. All the while, your fans hoped. I hoped. I followed each team, wishing that a roster spot would open up and that number 22 would come out of that bullpen.

In reality, it seems, it wasn’t meant to be. Now, though, you have the opportunity to move on to the next part of your journey. Front office management, where you can make careers for the next generation of baseball stars, broadcasting, where you can give life to the best sport in the world, or coaching, where you can craft a new arm, a better swing. All of these opportunities come together to allow you to do what you’ve been doing since May 22, 2002: making baseball a magical experience for those who get to watch you play.

So this retirement is a party, not a funeral. We celebrate the brilliance of a couple of seasons of unhittable dominance. We remember the incredible emotions that came with being a Mark Prior fan. And we thank you, I thank you, for giving me the best thing any ten year old could ever ask for: a baseball hero.

Your fan,

Austin Zoot